LEARN TRENDRISK SYSTEM

ATTENTION TO BLOG READER

2010-07-29T14:51:00.003+03:00

THE TR BLOG IS SUSPENDED UNTIL SEPTEMBER , I AM NOT TRADING AT THE MOMENT AND WE ARE REVIEWING THE BLOG STRUCTURE AND ACCESSIBILITY.
I WISH ALL A HAPPY HOLIDAY.

EUR-USD

2010-07-16T10:51:00.002+03:00

We are really busy with the lunch of TI for live trading and i am not following the markets too closely. I am on the sidelines until we have realeased . As you have probably seen the 4 H tipdown was not broken and the bullish set up have prevailed.
I will update the blog next week tuesday.

EUR-USD

2010-07-12T12:36:00.003+03:00

After reaching the Tipup daily zone with an high at 1.2722 the eur-usd has started to slide as expected.
The 5 15 and 1 H time frame have turned bearish on the TrendRisk trend indicator and eur-usd is in direction of a test at the 4 H TIPDOWN ZONE now at 1.2514-1.2487.
A brekdown there will signal the end of the bullish correction of the daily downtrend.
In this case the target at 1.1818 will be operational again.
For my trading i am waiting a good spot to enter having missed an entry at 1.2690.

EUR-USD

2010-07-06T09:28:00.002+03:00

eur-usd has found support at 1H tipdown at 1.2480 confirming the bullish set on the trendrisk trend indicator. The cross is now currently testing the tipup zone at 1.2565-75. A break will reput the eur-usd in a full bullish state with first target the TIPUP daily at 1.2670 and the hourly target at 1.2742.

EUR-USD

2010-07-02T00:03:00.002+03:00

Eur-usd has found support at the 4H TIPDOWN , and from there has scored an impressive rally that has turned bullish all intraday time frame (4H 1H 15m 5M) on trendrisk trend indicator. ( so the idea that this bullish correction of the daily downtrend had still steam into it was proved valid).
We could see now some minor corrections ( and i advise to monitor 5 and 15 m time frame and buy on correction to tipdown levels) but eur-usd is aiming steadely towards the 1.2657-1.2750 ( at the moment) DAILY TIPUP ZONE.
Extremely important zone for the continuation or reversal of the bearish daily trend.

NEWS
AT the end of month we will release live trading for FXCM AND dbFX on Tradeinterceptor Platform and also a TrendRisk video course. In the videos I will explain the theory and the practise of trendrisk for various style of trading.
For example today there were good opportunity trades on long gbp-usd and short usd-jpy went very well. (I do not pubblish all my trade on the blog but only the on of the TRSWING EUR_USD System)

EUR-USD

2010-06-29T06:37:00.002+03:00

EUR_USD is in direction to test the 4H trend inversion zone passing at the moment of writing at 1.2218 -1.2180.
A breakdown of this zone will end the daily bullish correction with space up to the daily tipup , putting back operational the dailly target proposed by trendrisk system at 1.1819.

EUR-USD

2010-06-28T06:52:00.004+03:00

Last week euro-dollar found support as anticipated at the 4 H TIPDOWN inversion zone.
The daily trend remains bearish on TrendRisk indicator, with target still set at 1.1823.
Looking at the other timeframes , 4H remains bullish , 1 H bearish and 15 minutes bullish.
The cross is now testing the 1H inversion zone at TIPUP ( now at 1.2388- 1.2401). If the Tipup inversion zone is broken - and this looks really probable - the 1H timeframe will also turn bullish: the eur-usd will continue as forecasted toward the DAILY TIPUP inversion zone, which is passing today at 1.2666- 1.2763.
Summarizing, the main resistance now is the 1H tipup at 1.2388-01. I expect a break in the first days of the week with the continuation to the DAILY TIPUP ZONE where I intend to SHORT the eur-usd.

EUR-USD

2010-06-23T08:50:00.003+03:00

After reaching a high of 1.2451 the eur-usd has started to slide and is now approaching the 4 H TIPDOWN reversal zone passing , in the moment of writing at , 1.2215-1.2281 with short-term support at 1.2250.
A Break of this area will resume the major bearish trend in full and we will assist at a fast slide to 1.2000 and 1.1900.
In my opinion the chances that the cross will find support there and continue for 1.2450 again first, and after for 1.2770 DAILY TIPUP, are still very high.
Will look for development.

EUR-USD

2010-06-17T13:34:00.002+03:00

the eur-usd has broken the 8 h TiPUP resistance zone and is now heading like anticipated for the DAILY TIPUP ZONE today passing at 1.2750-1.2880. I will wait this area to be reached and short the eur again.
Today there was a very nice long opportunity on the 1 H time frame when price tested for some hours TIPDOWN.
I might start another line of trading with shorter time frame and more currencies, if i decide to do so i will also pubblish it on the blog but with a different equity line.

exit trade 27

2010-06-15T16:33:00.003+03:00

the second part of trade 27 has been stopped out . Total profit for the trade +50 Pips. Equity line + 818.5 pips.
Eur-usd is now testing the 8H tipup zone again at 1.2316-62. If this area gives way this correction has space to extend to the DAILY TIPUP at 1.2815 today.
My idea is that this has high probability to happen.
But i will wait and see what will happen.

Trade 27

2010-06-15T11:15:00.000+03:00

Stop 1.2240

TRADE 27

2010-06-14T21:06:00.001+03:00

STOP AT 1.2270

exit trade 27

2010-06-14T20:18:00.002+03:00

Took profit at at 1.2240 . MY instinct tells me to lower stop at BE as soon as possible.
STOP NOW AT BE AT 1.2290.

TRADE 27

2010-06-14T20:12:00.001+03:00

I am going to take profit sooner than 1.2205 .
FIRST TARGET 1.2220 AS SOON AS TARGET HIT STOP AT BE (1.2290) FOR THE REST OF POSITION

TRADE 27

2010-06-14T19:57:00.000+03:00

SHORT AT 1.2290 stop 100 pips
FIRST target 1.2205

EUR-USD 14-6-2010

2010-06-14T14:32:00.002+03:00

I am watching the market to see if there is a possibility to enter short but the tecnical set has changed and does not confirm a short entry.
this correction has space now to the 8H TIPUP Zone at 1.2284- 1.2331 , above that the correction could extend up to the daily tipup at 1.2800.
As an idea of short term trade : long at 1.2200-10 with stop at 1.2160-50 for target at 1.2280

EUR-USD 11-6-2010

2010-06-11T11:19:00.004+03:00

Eur-usd is finding resistance ,as anticipated at 1.2150. Even though this could be the high of this correction , i still believe ( looking at the bullish tone of the inferior time frame ) that it will be broken.
If this happens we will see a fast move to 1.2220 where my limit order is placed.
I will cancel the order if not filled today , as i do not like to maintain pending order during the weekend.
If 1.2150 is the max i will have lost another opportunity to short the dollar , but this type of trading style is based on managing the risks ( up to now the max drawdown has been 4%).
As i said many time my objective is to reach 20-30% return per year and to reach this goal and maintain small drawdwon you need to be very selective with the trade.
This takes a lot of patience that the majority of traders do not have.

EUR-USD

2010-06-10T21:30:00.003+03:00

Eur-usd is approaching the 4 H TIPUP resistance area at 1.2182-1.2226. Resistance area at 1.2130-50 should be broken in order to see the 4 H zone reached.
I am preparing to SHORT the euro -dollar in the 4 H resistance zone.
I have put a LIMIT SELL ORDER AT 1.2219 stop 100 pips

Exit trade 26

2010-06-07T10:15:00.002+03:00

The second half of the trade 26 was stopped out at +2 pips 1.2237.
Total profit for the trader 38.5 pips. ( 75+2)/2.
The equity line from the start of the blogs stands now at 768.5 pips.
The eur-usd continue in the downtrend that has now a new weekly target at 1.0800.
For now euro correction had not the strenght to reach the 4 H tipup zone.
First resistance is now at the 1 H tipup zone at 1.2103-48 today.
I am waiting for a correction to short eur-usd . The downtrend has space down to 1.08.

Trade 26

2010-06-03T08:53:00.001+03:00

First target reached at 1.3310. Sold half position.
Stop Now at BE . Second target at 1.3390

TRADE 26

2010-06-03T00:03:00.002+03:00

I decided to take a countertrend trade.
I am LONG EUR_US AT 1.2235 STOP 100 Pips.
First Target 1.3310 II target 1.3390.

EUR-USD

2010-06-01T10:40:00.001+03:00

The eur=usd correction has stopped at 1.2453 not permitting the opening of new short positions. The cross is now near the low and the 4h TIPDOWN support zone at 1.2179-43.
A breakdown will open the way for 1.2000. As i am not trading breakouts i am on the sidelined waiting for a new opportunity

EUR-USD

2010-05-28T11:42:00.002+03:00

Eur-usd is continuing and confirming his bullish tone and is in trajectory to reach the 4 H tip reversal zone that today is set at 1.2520-1.2578.
I will look in this area to open a short position if there are signs of a reversal.
I will not open a position today , ( risking to miss the train) as i do not like to open position on friday , and risking a gap high on monday opening.
Also the daily shows that if 1.2520-78 gives way there is a space for a move up to 1.2900 where definitely new short should be added.

Update

2010-05-28T00:16:00.004+03:00

I have not update the blog for quite a while , but i have been travelling and also preparing the lunch for june of the version of Tradeinterceptor platform with live trading integrated.
The first two broker connected will be FXCM E DBFX but all other broker will be connected during 2010.
So given the extreme volatility of the market lately and the need of extreme concetration to trade in such condition i decided that for me , given the situation , the best choice was to stop for a while. The best trade sometimes is no trade.
So my equity line remains up at 670 pips in 8 months ( approximatevely i have not done a real update)
Observing EUR-USD it seems to me that the current bullish correction has space in the next days to reach the 4 H TIPUP reversal zone at 1.2544-1.2614 where i intend to take a short position if the price action will support a reversal.
For price action i intend some bearish configuration in the Tipup inversion zone like
candlestick patterns and so on.
If i will take the trade i will post it as usual.

EUR_USD

2010-05-10T11:22:00.005+03:00

I am back in the office. Big stuff happend ! So the eur reached our medium term target at 1.2500 and now is in bullish retracement correction. Is currently testing the trend inversion zone on the 4 H Time frame at 1.3080-1.3122. I would look at the price action at this level to see if there is a possibility for a short . If this reversal zone is broker i think there is a space for a bigger correction with maximum extent the TIPUP DAILY zone with tipup currently at 1.3764.
UPDATE at 13.00 bulgarian time
I missed the enty at the 1.3067 M pattern on the test at tipup on 5 minute time frame. ( first sell off to 1.3026 then return to tipup) for a mistake in my setting of sound alarm.
I will see if i have another oppurtinity to short today. Market now at support at 1.3005 and i do not like to sell at support and in breakouts.

EUR-USD

2010-04-28T12:03:00.001+03:00

i will be out of office for the next 2 week so it will be difficult for me to update the blog with the eur-usd analysis , I will send trade and order if possible.
at the moment i am waiting a retracement for shorting the dollar again , but in the middle of the greek financial crisis and not having the possibility to check the price all the time , i might stand aside and wait that the volatiltity goes down,
For the middle term euro is going to 1,2860 and 1.2500.

exit Trade 24 25

2010-04-22T02:30:00.002+03:00

I have just close both trade 24 and 25 at 1.3387 .
Profit for trade 24 203 pips
profit for trade 25 63 pips
Ovarall profit 266 Pips.
Finally a good trade. i decide to exit event though major support area is at 1.3260-1.3300. i think we might have a bounce from the 1..3370 low which is the trend inversion zone with convergence of h4 tipdown at 1/3370 and 78,6% of the upmove 1.3280 1.3693.

Trade25

2010-04-19T23:12:00.001+03:00

Sold 1.3450 on stop , STOP LOSS +115 pips (1.3565)
Stop loss at break even on trade 24 1.3590

TRADE 24 and notice to blog reader

2010-04-16T11:47:00.002+03:00

Eur-usd is at 1.3552 and my trade look better than yesterday but the eur-usd needs to clear the 1.3510 1 H tipdwon and especially the 4 H tipdown at 1.3460 to regain full bearish state and to progress for 1.3280 and 1.3000.
So i still let this trade develop. I look as initial target 1.3300. I have also an order to sell on stop at 1.3450 to try to recover trade 23 loss.
I will be in vacation next wees . so i will update the close of the trade 24 , and eventually send other trade order , but i will not update the blog.

TRADE 24

2010-04-14T11:24:00.002+03:00

Eur-usd is at 1.3637 and my trade does not look very good.
A W pattern has been formed on the daily ( as kindly pointed out by michele sblendorio a trendrisk user in an email to me today.)
Yesterday test at support at 1.3540 seems really to be a retracement to old resistance at 2/4 and the current movement look pretty bullish.
If the current M pattern that is developing on The 4 H and 1H time frame is negated ,with a break of 1.3700. The eur-usd is set to a move to 1.3841-.3935 Daily TipUp zone.
With 1.4000 round number in sight.
For my trade i will respect the stop loss and wait. If the current movement turn bullish i might try to enter long on retracement but usually i tend to be A TREND trader .

TRADE 24

2010-04-12T15:28:00.001+03:00

I am short at 1.3590 with stop 100 pips.

TRADE 24

2010-04-12T15:08:00.001+03:00

hmmm i think it was fake breakout. Eur-usd is below 1.3608 TIPUP now at 1.3574.
I putted a limit order in the marker
EUR_USD SELL LIMIT 1.3590 stop 100 pips.

Eur usd

2010-04-12T12:41:00.001+03:00

I am out of office, and will post an analysisi tomoroww.
For now I am on the sideline , stiill euro short for the future but to understand where.

TRADE 24

2010-04-11T23:00:00.001+03:00

i have deleted the limit order at 1.3550 . I prefer after the greek bailout to watch the market tomorow.
It might open higher.

TRADE 23

2010-04-08T18:20:00.002+03:00

Eur-usd is at 1.3349

I have changed the limit orders at the 1H TiPUP level of today

NEW ORDERS

SELL LIMIT EUR_USD AT 1.3400 STOP 50 PIPS.

IF STOPPED

SELL LIMIT EUR_USD at 1.3550 STOP 100 PIPS

if FILLED ALSO INSERT

SELL STOP ORDER AT 1.3450 STOP 100 PIPS

TRADE 23

2010-04-07T01:42:00.003+03:00

I have rewied the 6 month equity line , in the last 2 days and had some good insight in my trading of the last six month.
Altough the results are positive they have could been better if my entry strategy for the short side was a little bit more organized.
I will post a full review in the coming days of the performance of this trendrisk blog .
the report of my trading dairy is intended to be a learning process for the trendrisk system, but it is becoming also for me a good tool to enanche my personal trading.
SO the results are :
464 Pips of profit in 209 days 22 trade
returns calculted on a 2% risk per trade on 100.000 $ account
RETURN 9.28% in 209 days
ANNUALIZED RETURN 16.31%
MAX DRADRAWN FOR THE PERIOD 4%
As i said many times on this blog and in the webinar my goal is to achieve a 30% per year. Anything above 20% is good.
The TR swing eur-usd trading tecnique that i use is an accumulation type of trading.
it takes discipline and patiente to be applied.
There are many other type of tecniques that can be applied using technical analysis and trendrisk for intraday and scalp TRADER which i hope i will cover in the coming trendrisk video course that is set to release for end of may.

COMING BACK TO TRADING
I have decided to change the execution model upon rewieing the last 6 month tradig performance .
I will start to use again pending order
In this way i do not need to be alwasy in front of the screen and also it will help me to avoid esitation or doubt when the levels of trading opportunity are reached.
This has cost me more that 400 pips of left on the table.
I have no emotional negativity about this , but the fact is that execution should be improved in the second semester to achieve 30 % goal

TRADE 23

SELL LIMIT ORDER EUR-USD AT 1.3480 STOP 100 PIPS .

The entry is set at 1H Tipup resistance zone and other confluence resistance.

If i am stopped out at 1.3580 i will put another

SELL LIMIT ORDER EUR_USD at 1.3630 stop 100 pips and if filled

ALSO A SELL STOP ORDER AT 1.3580 stop 100 pips ( point of the first stop) in order to get back my loss when the trend finally reverse.

EUR-USD

2010-04-06T09:36:00.003+03:00

EUR_USD is at 1.3443. Last week it reached my sell area , but the fact that it was before Easter holiday , made me cautious about entering a short position.
If i was more aggressive i could have banked 130 pips . Trading is always a matter of risk against reward.
At the moment the cross is near the 4H TIPDOWN SUPPPORT area at 1.3409-1.3386.
The FOMC meeting tonight will probably cause some volatility in the market.
I prefer not to trade in front of big market mover.
If the the 4 H Tipdown area gives away we will see a new test at the lows at 1.3267.
If not a new rally to 4HTIPUP RESISTANCE AREA at 1.3629-76 will ensue.
For my trading i wait for development.

EUR-USD

2010-03-31T07:53:00.003+03:00

Yesterday the eur-usd has climb to only 14 Pips to the 4H TIPUP sell area reaching an high of 1.3538. From there the pair has reversed and is now currently at 1.3406. To be noted that 1.3542 was 50 % retracement of the slide 1.3818-1.3207.
Short term support is given by thr 1H TIPDOWN AREA at 1.3393-87 and 1.3370 61.8 % of the last up swing from 1.3307-1.3538.
Medium Term Support is at 4H TiPDOWN at .13343-15.
For the week i expect a bounce from support area and a return to the 4H TIPUP resistance and potential reversal area at 1.3570-1.3612 wherei INTEND TO SHORT THE EURO.
I continue to be disciplined and applying only Trend retracement trading at the moment. Type B trade in the Trendrisk System.
Rimango disciplinato attuando per adesso, solo Trend trading in retracemente. Trade tipo B nel sistema trendrisk.
Above 1.3617 the new resistance and potential reversal area is given by the DAILY TIPUP ZOne at 1.3592-14070 where there is also a confluence of some important fibonacci retracement.
S

Eur usd

2010-03-29T14:06:00.002+03:00

Eur usd is in direction for the 4h tipup zone at
1.3552-92. I will monitor this area to see if there is a SELL
opportunity.

EUR-USD

2010-03-26T12:31:00.002+02:00

After reaching the daily target at 1.3266 eur-usd has started a bullish correction , and is now currently testing the 1h TIPUUp.
Intraday Trendrisk Trader should monitor this level ha there might appear some good opportunity and setup.
If the 1 H TIPUP gives way this correction can extent to the 4 H TIPUP area where i intend to go short again.
Usually i do not open positions on friday.

EUR-USD

2010-03-25T07:33:00.004+02:00

Eur-usd is in a fully bearish state, as you can see on the 4 h charts the close are well below Tipdown and this is a state of a really bearish psychological attitude of the market.
We should see TR daily target at 1.3266 reached soon. Weekly time frame target is at 1.2866.
Having lost another 500 pips opportunity for 20 pip stop is not really nice , but 1) I won't chase this market and 2) I am researching breakout strategy or reentry strategy in order to possibly avoid this situation for the future. For my trading it's really not a nice situation, but sooner or later there is going to be another retracement and another opportunity to get in. I think we have space up to 1.10 during the year. So still a lot of opportunities to ride this downtrend.

EUR-USD

2010-03-24T14:24:00.002+02:00

The support area has been broken. Daily target will be met soon at 1.3266.
Weekly target at 1.2866. I am waiting for a correction.

EUR-USD

2010-03-19T14:13:00.002+02:00

The support area is being broken, the cross is going to test the low at 1.3425 daily Tipdown. I am on the sideline.

REVIEW TRADE 20 EUR-USD

2010-03-18T09:32:00.007+02:00

Unfortunately the Stop at 1.3800 was a false upside breakout and eur-usd is now at 1.3670.
Reviewing the trade 20, which is always good to be done on any trade, it looks like I have anticipated the entry leaving a sell limit order at 1.3700 ( 4H TIPUP at that time) because I was out of the office following some conferences and unable to watch the market.
In reality, yesterday we had a M top Pattern on 4H with many reversal candle stick patterns on lower time frame.
So it is better for future trades to wait for a definite pattern to appear on the charts before opening a position.
I am testing also - and as I said more than one time in the webinars "it's not my cup of tea" - a MOMENTUM OR BREAKOUT SYSTEM.
This is because USING ONLY RETRACEMENT trading , could be not enough some times.
For example if the entry is not right , like in the case of the trade 20 , or the prices do not reach the limit orders , you could be right on direction but out of the market.
This has happened to me in this downtrend in which I was 100% correct on the 1.5000-1.3500 slide prediction , but unable to extract more pips.
So yesterday in demo, I left a sell order on STOP at 1.3720 , with this technique, though I was wrong on the entry of the trade 20, I could now be back in the market.
IT is always good to try to refine better the system.
Having said so , losing is part of the game, My equity line is still up , and I am risking only 2% of my capital each trade.
TONIGHT there is a TRENDRISK WEBINAR in which we will explain and demonstrate the use of
TREND INVERSION POINTS ON TRENDRISK ( TIPS) with M top patterns and W bottom patterns , with the use of CANDLESTICK patterns.

EUR_USD is in direction of the 4H support zone offered by TIPDOWN in the 1.3628 -02 area.
A break of support will see 1.3288 DAILY TRENDRISK TARGET reached in accelerations.
If this support area holds it means that EUR_USD is still on a neutral short term range and a return to 1.3800 is to be expected.

TRADE 20

2010-03-17T14:47:00.002+02:00

Stopped out. Unfortunately it starts to look like a false breakout.
I am watching to assess the present situation.

Trade 20

2010-03-16T09:59:00.001+02:00

Still letting the trade play itself out.
Stop still at 1.3800

Trade 20

2010-03-12T10:37:00.002+02:00

Filled, I am now letting this trade evolve.
The 4h tipup zone should offer resistance for this trade to work straight away.

TRADE 20

2010-03-11T02:18:00.001+02:00

I have put a limit sell order at 1.3700 on eur-usd . STOP 100 PIP FIXED.

EUR-USD

2010-03-09T07:38:00.003+02:00

Yesterday the cross arrived near TIPUP 4H and from there a bearish phase started. On the hourly time frame we had 2 perfect bearish opportunities : the first after the HIGH, following a series of bearish candlestick, patterns and the second on the second leg of the M pattern where the shadow had pierced the TIPUP at 1.3692 and then closed below it.
I will show this patterns in details in the course I am preparing which should be released in May, and in the webinar of next week.
Today the cross is still in a neutral range.
SUPPORTS are at 1H TIDOWN and STOP at 1.3594-1.3584 and at 4H TIPDOWN at 1.3510/ 1.3476.
RESISTANCE are at 1H TIPUP at 1.3684- 1.3700 and 4H TIPUP at 1.3733 -68.
Tips are dynamic AND CHANGE DURING THE DAY.
It is possible to trade at supports today if on the 1 H tipdown some reversal pattern appears or at 4 H TIPDOWN if the first support
( 1H tipdown) gives way.

EUR-USD

2010-03-08T11:29:00.003+02:00

The cross seems to have turned neutral on the 4 h time frame.
I will see how it will react to the 1.3724-55 area, which is the 4H TIPUP AND STOP - time frame in which I trade - above that the correction could extend to the DAILY TIPUP, which today is at 1.4086. Long Term trend is still with target at 1.3266 on the daily and 1.2868 on the weekly.

2010-03-05T11:35:00.003+02:00

I am out of office today. Strategy is always the same sell when there is an occasion
preferebly at 4 H tipup level. Yesterday I moved the stop too fast but if you follow
Warren Buffet's rules, you are fine:
1 never lose money
2 don' t forget about rule number 1.

EXIT TRADE 19

2010-03-04T14:03:00.002+02:00

Stopped out . PROFIT + 47.
The short term direction seems to be gaining up momentum.
I will short again as soon as i see an opening .
Possible area 1.3750.

update trade 19

2010-03-04T12:21:00.003+02:00

Stop a 1.3683. If the 5 minute TIPUP is broker it means that the daily correction has still steam and we will see 1.3750 again.
LOKED IN PROFIT + 47 pips

Update TRADE 19

2010-03-04T12:07:00.001+02:00

Stop moved to 1.3716.

Update trade 19

2010-03-04T11:12:00.002+02:00

Stop at breakeven

TRADE 19

2010-03-03T18:49:00.000+02:00

SHORT at 1.3730. STOP 50 Pips

EUR-USD

2010-03-03T13:51:00.004+02:00

Yesterday the bearish phase reached exactly the 4 H TIPDOWN and from there bounced back. On the 1H time frame we had almost a dragonfly dojy and from there the cross abruptly reversed. This is another example of how a currency can invert at TIPS. Is not a W bottom but a V bottom which are much more difficult to catch.
Currently the correction anticipated yesterday has started and it's going to test 4H TIPUP and stop at 1.3687 -1.3717
after that we have 8 H TIPUPat 1.3772 and the daily TIPUP is now at 1.4113.
I am looking for a place to short but i will watch for a little lonmger , it look like this correction has possibility to extend further.
If i trade i will post the trade so watch the blog . I am organizing the sms service so we will be operational soon for the ones of how you that will subscribe.

2010-03-02T10:44:00.005+02:00

THe eur-usd cross is still in a short term bearish phase in direction of support at 1h tipdown at 1.3488 that if broken will open the way for the 4h tipdownat 1.3434 . THE DAILY POSITION remains with a high possibility for a bullish correction , given the divergence present on the daily and the fact that the cross has not really correct from the 1.4500 level. This correction has a maximum extension up to daily tipup at 1.4170.
Short term resistance and possible entry SHORT points are at: 1.3615-31 1H tipup e stop e 1.3717 4H tipup.
MAIN STRATEGY is still the same : wait for the bullish correction to develop and find a good spot to short for memium term target at 1.2800.
I will also monitor the support levels and if a w bottom appears on the 1H or 4H tipdown i might open a counter trend trade.

eur-usd 1-3-2010

2010-03-01T15:17:00.001+02:00

As i was back after vacations in the office today , i had no chance to open the charts until now ( backlogs.) As we stand we had a perfect selling oppurtunity today at 1.3650 Tipup and M top. Now the cross is at 1.3505 testing 1H tipdown. It look like the 1.3505
Can hold. I will post more extensive analysis and plat tomoroow as soon as i have unloaded the million things accumulated in only one week.

exit trade 18 eur-usd 19-2-2010

2010-02-19T07:01:00.002+02:00

Trade n 18 was stopped out at 0 pips profit. The correction was not strong enough as expected.
The euro-usd has now broken support at 1.3530 and is currently at 1.3480.
Trend is down with first target at .13260.
I still think a correction is due , but for now the usd continue to gain. For me to low to enter.
for my trading i will wait patiently for another B Trade opportunity as i described in yesterday webinar , that will be shortly available in the webinar section of the tradeinterceptor.com site.
ANOTHER NOTICE TO USER
I will be off for a week next week for a family vacation. I wont update the blog nor i will trade.

update trade 18

2010-02-18T17:35:00.000+02:00

removed the trailing stop. Stop raised to entry point.

update trade 18

2010-02-18T09:11:00.001+02:00

SET A TRAILING STOP AT 50 pips.

trade 18

2010-02-18T08:57:00.001+02:00

BOUGHT EUR-USD AT 1.3582 STOP 100 PIPS FIXED , ( WHICH I INTEND TO MOVE ASAP IF THE TRADE GOES IN MY FAVOR).
THIS IS A COUNTER TREND TRADE SO A RISKY ONE.

eur-usd 18-2-2010

2010-02-18T07:42:00.003+02:00

yesterday there was an opportunity on the 4 h tipup resistance level to short and i miss it. Early in the morning it seemed that the cross had chance to break the 1.3790 level as there were no indicators signs for a reversal at that level, but then it was possible to see a bearish reversal sign with a small w top and a dragonwfly doji on 9.00 gmt folowwed by a bearish breakout candle. Unfurtunately for me i was bringing my mum to the airport and i did not see these formations at the right time. when i return in the office the dollar was already at 1.3730 and i thought it was to low for my risk apettatite to short at that level. I would consider this lost sell opportunity a mistake.
Having said so : mistake are always present in trading I have analyze it ( i need server side alarms for the iphone application : they are under development) and will try to avoid to do it again for the future. SO LET'S MOVE ON there is always another opportunity.
eur-usd is now at 1.3570 and is neara cluster of support levels ( 4h tipdwon , price lows s1 resistance) at 1.3525-40 levels.
A break will open the way for a 1.3450 first target and a resumption of the downtrend for the daily and weekly target.
BUT i am not conviced this will happen , we start to have a divergences on the rsi daily : The euro- should make a resizable retracement in the near future up to the 1.3900 1.400 area.
So i will wait patiently for another trend opportunity . I migh also try a counter trend today and go long.
For the one of you that will come to the webinar today i will explain the eur-usd position and also go into how to use the scanner to find good risk reward trade.

Update

2010-02-17T15:32:00.000+02:00

It seems like a miss an opportunity to sell at 1.3780
now the test at1.3700 is important .

eur-usd 2-17-2010

2010-02-17T08:22:00.005+02:00

Yesterday I avoided to short at the 1h tipup level : I have not been doing that from all the way down and it was quite probable that the moment i would get in would be the time that the correction would extend.
eur-usd has reached the level of 1.3769 and is currently testing the 1.3774-92 Tipup and STOP area .
The strength of this move and the fact that, at the moment, there are no signs of slow down of momentum in the indicators reading makes me cautious to short at this level right now. I will wait and see what happens. If these levels are cleared, the next target for these corrections is at the 1.3905 R2 Pivot and 1.3930 8 H TIPUP.
The trend is bearish and this is a technical correction , but I am trying to see where it will stop and where to enter short, either at these levels or lower, or at the 1.3900-30 area.
If I trade I will post the trade today .

eur-usd 2-16-2010

2010-02-16T07:47:00.004+02:00

eur-usd is at 1.3648 and is testing the restistance area offered by TIPUP e STOPTIPUP at 1.3650-59 .
R2 PIVOT is today at 1.3659.
If this resistance area gives way we should see an attempt to the 4H TIPUP at 1.3678.
I am waiting for this test to decide whether I will short at these levels or at the 1.3768 level.
My opinion is that this correction has a chance to extend to 1.3768 4H TIPUP level.
Support is at 1H TIPDOWN 1.3548 and S2 PIVOT 1.3547.

eur-usd 2-15-2010

2010-02-15T10:50:00.008+02:00

I am back in the office, unfortunately I really had bad Internet connection in the mountain and I was completely unable to follow the markets.
The eur-usd almost arrived at the forecasted target at 1.3500. As I said, I am not very happy about the trading result of this bearish trading - even though I am up 538 pips from September (the start of the blog) - I really left some money on the table.
This is by the way one of the 4 trading fears . Analyzing rationally the mistakes, it appears that I have been putting limit orders on the 4 h tipup level and because the trend was so strong they never were filled. This proves once more that real trading is always a balance between risk and opportunities. As I said more than one time , my objective in trading is to get a stable 30 % return per year and being cautious is part of my trading style. So after all I am fine with my trading and myself , but I think that always trying to do better is part of being a good trader.
Eur-usd is now at 1.3591 and - as I said before - I WON'T chase this market, the second leg of the downtrend was long and strong so a correction is due again.
RESISTANCE LEVELS ARE AT 1.3694 1H TIPUP and 1.3697 R1 PIVOT
AND 4 H TIPUP 1.3812 1.3778 R2 PIVOT (remember that TIPs are dynamic and change, whether Pivots are not)
Support is at 1.3530 level.
As you can see I also updated the pivots level today. I have been following them with TIPS level for more than one year and they seem to work really well.
For my trade I will wait again for a correction and try to get in. I might try to get in at at the 1.3694 level and use the get back in the trend strategy if I am stopped out. Will see and update the trend.
On a long term basis the daily Trendrisk trend is set at 1.3266 on the weekly , which has confirmed the inversion at 1.2868.
So the euro bearish trend is definitively still on.
As a side note , we received enough interest for the SMS services and we are planning to roll it in production in the month of May.

notice to reader

2010-02-09T17:03:00.002+02:00

The blog entry and trades will restart Monday the 15. I won't trade until that date.

exit trade 17

2010-02-04T19:40:00.003+02:00

Yesterday trade was close at 1.3965 for a 50 tick profit. I am sorry I was unable to update the blog but, as I said, I am in a travelling phase. Just remember as a rule: as soon as I have 100 pips in profit I do not want to leave more than 50% on the table.
From there the euro has collapsed and it is going to reach the 1.3500 target very soon. As I said I am more and more convinced of the us bull and we will see 1.2500 in the coming months.
I hope I can enter in this bearish trend that I had perfectly forecasted but was unable to maximize the results.
So I am quite disappointed with my trading results.
RESISTANCE is now at 1,3945 tipup level.
I won't chase this market but wait for another correction and this time, hopefully I will get in.
I will not update the blog tomorrow.

Trade 17 update

2010-02-03T10:16:00.001+02:00

Stop moved to break-even.

ATTENTION TO BLOG READER

2010-02-03T03:32:00.002+02:00

ATTENTION TO BLOG READER

I will be travelling tomorrow and will be out of office until the 12 of February.
So it's a good time to test my mobile technology.. hoping everything works fine.
I will as much as possible try to update the state of trade 17.

For users who are following my trade: The medium term target for this move is at 1.4200 but resistance can be expected 1.4070 4H tipup. So I will be offloading the position in the 1.4070-1.4200 area.
I will post on the blog when I raise my stop and if I am about to exit.

To follow your requests we are considering creating an SMS service to update you about trades in real time.
IF you are interested please drop me an email at trendrisk@gmail.com .
For the coming days , I will be a seller at 1.4200 or below when I have unloaded this counter trend trade position , I will also try to compound the trading adding positions, as I am convinced that this downtrend has a lot more to give at least at 1.3500 minimum.
As for myself, I am going in the beautiful mountain of Italy and will take this opportunity to record the 3 video courses which I introduced in the webinar series.
Requests from Trade Interceptor community are growing and I would like to give traders some advise by explaining what I think is the good way to approach trading.

So, in the coming month, we will release 3 video courses:

1. "The fundamentals of successful forex trading" which deals with the skills that a trader must develop in order to be successful and most importantly, what needs to be addressed in order to put into practice the learned skills.

2. "Trade Interceptor Platform" which will show in detail how to use the platform , mobile , charting and excel, and how you can use the training features built in Trade Interceptor to enhance your trading.

3. "Trendrisk Course" in which I will explain in more details how to use Trendrisk for real trading in the trend/swing/intraday and scalper categories . The theory of the indicator will be fully explained and several examples of the 4 trading strategies will be shown.

The good news is that they are going to be free at no cost!

I am trying to send a message to the forex newcomers and teach them how NOT TO blow their trading account in less than 3 weeks - which is something that you are going to do inevitably if you are not prepared - and how to build an ongoing training approach that will result in successful trading in the long term.

Hope you will like them.

eur-usd 2-18-2010 TRADE 17

2010-02-02T10:40:00.004+02:00

EUR-USD has reached a high of 1.3950 where it found resistance. The possibilities for the cross to extend this bullish correction are high. If 1.3950 gives way the next resistance will be at 1.4064 4h TIPUP and 1.4237 8 H TIPUP.
Having said so, I decide to take a COUNTER TREND TRADE.
I just BOUGHT at 1.3914 with stop 100 pip fixed. Target could be the 4h or 8h TIPUPP.

eur-usd 1-02-2010

2010-02-01T15:03:00.003+02:00

The eur-usd is trying to develop a bullish correction after reaching a low of 1.3853.
and is now at 1.3912.

RESISTANCE LEVELS ARE, AT THE MOMENT OF WRITING:
1H TIPUP AND STOP 1.3943-54
4H TIPUP AND STOP 1.4100-37.

I will short the Euro as soon as I see a consolidation , but in the 1.4000-1.4100 area.
I will post the trade when I am in .

Eur usd

2010-01-28T11:16:00.001+02:00

Not a big change from yesterday still waiting for a correction to develop.
Tipup 4 h at 1.4205 today

eur-usd 1-27-2010

2010-01-27T08:50:00.004+02:00

eur-usd is testing support at 1.4050. The presence of a rsi divergence on the 1h time frame and the convergence of 1h and 4h Tipdown make a bounce to the 1h tipup at 1.4133 still possible. Above 1.4150 we could see the 4h TIPUP tested at 1.4258 now.

If the 1.4050 support gives way permanently we will see 1.4000 reached as first target with new target set at 1.3790.

For my trading either the pair will rebound and i get a chance to short it into a correction (preferably in the 4h TIPUP) ,or if we have a breakout on the donwside i will wait for a rebound on a a shorter time frame and short it there. In any case i will short the euro in order to get back in this bearish eur-usd rend as soon as i find a low risk entry opportunity.
UPDATE AT 14.49
The eur is correcting and is now aiming for the 1h tipup sto zone at 1.411-22 other important resistance area is at 1.4150 4h trendline and R1 pivot . So i am waiting to see if open a short position there . another point where to open short is at 1-4246 4h TIPUP if the corrections extends.

eur-usd 1-26-2010

2010-01-26T12:46:00.003+02:00

eur-usd has found resistance at the 1H TIPUP at 1.4195 yesterday and from there as started to weaken again is now currently at 1.4099 just above the supports that are well defined by the 1H and 4H TIPDOWN at 1.4085 and 1.4079.
If this level of supports are broken the pair will start a new momentum slide towards 1.4000 and 1.3790 -
A bounce from current prices is still possible and if this happens should find good resistance at 1.4180- 1.4200 1H TIPUP and Stop and 1.4293 4H TIPUP.
I am not so convinced at this momement that the euro will have the strength to reach 4H TIPUP but i am monitoring the situation in order to find a LOW risk entry SHORT opportunity.

eur-usd 1-25-2010

2010-01-25T11:26:00.002+02:00

eur-usd is at 1.4143 the time i am writing. The cross has rebound from the lows and is now in a correction phase.
RESISTANCE ARE at ( at the moment but as tip are dinamically calculated the will change during the coming hours and days)
1 H TIPUP and stop 1.4188 -1.4201
4 H TIPUP and stop 1.4299-1.4333
8 H TIPUP and stop 1.4437-1.4493
Daily trendline from the high of december 2 at 1.5142 passing trough 1/14/2010 at 1.4580 today at 1.4400
SUPPORT are at
1H TIPDONW and stop at 1.4092-77
4H TIPDOWN and stop at 1.4089-62
8h TIPDOWN and stop at 1.4122-1.4084
D TIPDOWN and stop at 1.4139-1.4076.
so the support area is well defined in the 1.4050-70 area
For my trading i am waiting for this correction to develop and will decide if to enter at the 4h or 8 h TIPUP. I hope that in the coming days the level will converge in order to have a more stronger signals. So for now i am on the sideline.

20 1 2010 eur-usd

2010-01-20T12:11:00.002+02:00

eur-usd 1.4180
WELL . The eur-usd arrived at 40 pips from my entry point and he crashed.
So sometimes happens ( and i am a little mad at me) you are completely correct on the direction but you missed the move. I should have left open the 1.4495 , 1.4425 trade of last week as i planned to ride the trend to 1.4000. Said it ,but not done it...
So eur-usd is going to hit 1.4000 soon , and the last move fully confirm that we are in a bear trend with firs target set at 1.4000 and second target at 1.3739.
I HOPE that we will see another bullish correction to 1H TIPUP currently at 1.4339 TO SELL THE EURO and have the possibility to ride this trend.

eur-usd 1-19-2010

2010-01-19T09:38:00.002+02:00

eur-usd is at 1.4406 developing the expected bullish correction.
RESISTANCE ARE AT
1H TIPUP And STOP 1.4422-30.
4H TIPUP and STOP 1.4507-33
DAILY TRENDLINE 1.4500.
I WILL BE A SELLER IN THE 1.4450-1.4500 area.

eur-usd 1-18-2010

2010-01-18T13:24:00.003+02:00

Eur-usd is at 1.4375 at the moment. The cross has recovered slightly from the low of 1.4335. On the downside support is at 1.4340-30 area 1H and 4H tipdown.
On the upside resistance is at 1.4440-50 1H tipup and at 1.4550 4Htipup.
There is also a tentative daily trendline from the high at 12/4/2009 passing 1/14/2010 passing at 1.4500.
I will be a SELLER in the 1.4450-1.4550 ( hopefully if it reach those levels), as i am still convinced that we are in a bear trend with fist target at 1.4000.

summary TRENDRISK SWING equity line in the first 122 days

2010-01-15T16:20:00.007+02:00

Some data on the result of the equity line up to now. I will prepare a more detailed pdf report at the end of the first semester.
The discretionary system SWING TRENDRISK EUR_USD has generated in 16 trade and 122 days of trading 488 pips .
The following return of the systems is calculated on a standard 100.000 euro account with risk on each trade set at 2% of the capital and 100 fixed pips stop loss.
To loose 2% of the capital with a 100 pips stop loss ( with eur-usd exchange rate set at 1.5) the ammount to trade is 300.000 euro .
300.000 * 0.0100 = 3000 $ of loss that divided 1.5 ( set exchange for eur-usd)) equals 2000 euro. and even thoug the eur-usd exchange rate has fluctuated the calculation of the result is based on buying 3 standard lot each trade.
RESULTS
488 pips time 300.000 euro = 14640 $ that divided 1.44 ( eur-usd exchange of today)bring 10.166 euro in 122 days.
The percentul return for the period is 10.16 % in 122 days that brings an annualized return of 30.3%.
Some important fact. ONLY 16 trade in 122 days , maximum exposure per trade always at 2% of the capital.
Also interesting is that only in the last month the equity has started to pick up.
Which is normal , in the first months our conservative risk management has protect the capital until the good period is arrived.
As i said i will prepare a pdf report at the end of the semester.

exit trade 16

2010-01-15T15:42:00.003+02:00

I decided to close both trades at 1.4375 . I think we might have a rebound and there will be opportuity to trade again next week.
resu lt of the trade 16
1 position 1.4498-1.4375 result +123
2 position 1.4425-1.4375 result + 50

total profit trade 16 + 173 pips

eur-usd 15 1-2010 update trade 16

2010-01-15T12:31:00.002+02:00

I have now 2 trade open the monday trade at 1.4498 and also my sell order at 1.4425 has been filled so i have add to the position as planned .
I REDUCE MY RISK , moving the stop loss for both trade at 1.4498 .. I have also put an exit order for both trade at 1.4325 , as i am not conviced that we will break the major support today and the trading range could extend itself for a while. In this case if i am filled succesfully i might tray to sell again at any decent bouce.
For now exit STOP AT 1.4498 a TAKE PROFIT at 1.4325

eur-usd 14-1-2010 update trade 16

2010-01-14T09:30:00.002+02:00

eur-usd has found resistance at 1.4580 yesterday and after that has usd has recovered a bit. at the moment of writing the cross is at 1.4540.
A test at 1.4580 again looks really probable . If the level is broken we should see 1.4640 reached in the first place and the bullish correction could extend up to the DAILY TIPUP today at 1.4762.
If i am stopped out , my stop is still at 1.4598 ( and it look possible) as soon as the cross reach 1.4650 i will enter a stop sell order at 1.4598 in order that when the bear trend finally resume i will be able to recover my loss.
For now the trade is still on and let's see what is the final outcome. This trade could have been better from an entry viewpoint but it as been a planned trade and i consider it an A trade whatever is the result.

eur-usd update trade 16

2010-01-13T08:40:00.004+02:00

Reviewing the trade 16 , i definitively could have entered better than 1.4898 . The cross is from 2 days now stuck into a trading range that is well defined by the 1 H time frame with tipup at 1.4530-42 and tipdown at 1.4437-22 at the time i am writing.
On the upside the resistance is also at 1.4560-80 4 and 8 h TIpup.
i think today we could see a break of this range. I hope the break will be on the downside but this bullish correction could extend to test the daily tipup currently at 1.4783. If this happens i have already outlined my strategy in the post of yesterday.
If i am stopped out i will resell at higher level and put a sell stop order at my stop level ( 1.4598) in order to recover my loss , as soon as the dowtrend resume.
For now i am still in the trade of monday and let it develop.

trade 16

2010-01-12T10:02:00.002+02:00

Unfortunately the trade i pubblished yesterday finished on the italian blog . ( still a little problem when i am out of office);
Anyway the update was this:
Short at 1.4498. Stop at 100 pips.
Risk at 2 percent of capital.
As we are almost as the same level of yesterday the trade still stand .
My opinion has not changed , we are in a bear trend and we will see 1.4000 reached.
I will add to the position at 1.4425. (sell euro again) and i have already an order in.
If i am stopped out i will resell at higher levels ( Tipup daily is today at 1.4789) and renter from the level where i was stopped out .
To make it more clear if am stopped out i will sell again for example at 1.4750 and sell again at 1.4598 in order to recover my loss .

Trendrisk analysis eur-usd 07-01-2010

2010-01-07T10:49:00.003+02:00

the cross eur-usd had anticipated is now entered for the short tertm in a neutral phase.
The cross is stuck into the 1H tipup and tipdown level trading range.
TIPUP and stoptipup are 1.4451-69
TIPDOWN and stoptipdown 1.4339 -26.
On a more long term th 4 h delimit the entire trading range at 1.4500 and 1.4250.
There is short term trading oppurtunity in buying in support at 1.h tipdown as the dollar is currently at 1.4360.
A break of 1h tidown will start a move to the 4h tipdonw at 1.4250.
For my trading i will short any significant correction with two main point the area 1.4500-50 or if the correction extend the area 1.4700-50.
The trend is down with target at 1.4000.

exit trade 15

2010-01-06T10:37:00.002+02:00

My trader was stopped out at 1.4390 yesterday night for a profit of 85 pips . ( i have a rule of not leave more that 50% of my paper profit on the table when i am above 150 pips gain). It ghad reached an high of 175 pips during yesteday but the 4 H test at tipup was the high of the move.
today is interesting to monitor the tipdown levels on various time frame
1.4313 1H tipdown
1.4299 D tipdown
1.4261 4h tipdown
1.4218 8 H tipdown
I think we might enter in a nutrale phase before we see 1.4000 reached.
On the upside resistance is expected at
1.4479 1H tipup
1.4539 4 H tipup
1.4572 8 H tipup
Remember that tip ( trend inversion point ) level are dinamic and the will change during the day.
I will see today if there are possibility to trade the expected neutral phase,
Buying at support and selling at resistance

TRADE 15 and TR analisi eur-usd 01/05/2010

2010-01-05T10:59:00.003+02:00

Eur-usd ha reached an high of 1.4487 very close to the 4H tipup at 1.4502and now is currently at 1.4417. The resistance area at 1.4502-1.4433 is really important has we have a convergence of 2 tipup the 4H (1.4502) and 8h (1.4533) time frame if broken will extend the correction up to 1.4700. For now i still think that the cross has potential to test this resistance area again and i am letting this trade still play out. My stop is at 1.4324 and i am in a risk free trade. ( entered at 1.4305_ .
For the medium term i expect this bullish correction to end either at 1.4500-50 level or at 1.4700 and the trend to resume with first target at 1.4000 and second target at 1.3889 weekly tipdown.
This is why i intend to go short after the close of trade 15 and having identified the end of this bullish short term correction.( either 1.4500-50 or 1.4700)

update TRADE 15

2010-01-04T15:02:00.003+02:00

Stop moved to break even. eur-usd is at 1.4397

trade 14 e trade 15

2010-01-04T10:56:00.002+02:00

As said i was able to get a good trade during the vacation , on 29/12 eur-usd corrected to the 4 H tipup at 1.4460. I shorted at 1.4430 and exit the trade at 1.4300 for a 130 pip profit. I will be able to update the blog when i am out of office during 21010.
Today i entered LONG at 1.4305 , as i am expeting a correction to 1.4500 (4 H tipup) with first test at 1 h tipup at 1.4395. Stop 100 pips which i intend to move to break even asap. ( counter trend trade).

TrendRisk analysis EUR_USD 12-8 and notice to blog readers

2009-12-18T13:57:00.001+02:00

eur-usd seems to have found a bottom at 1.4304 and is now correcting. At the time that i am writing the cross is at 1.4382 . first resistance is at 1.4445 -63 1h tipup and stop. Taking in consideration the fast move that from the high of 1.5150 has reached 1.4300 a correction is due. I think when this happen it should reach the 4 h tipup currently at 1.4683. I intend to go short at the firs significant bullish correction.
NOTICE TO THE BLOG READER i will be in vacation from tomorowww till the 4 of january and i will not update the blog ( also i am going to my house in tuscany where i do not have a broadband internet connection). I will TRADE though , as i said i think the eur-usd is going to 1.3600 and i intend to ride this downtren and build a size position on it. I don' t think i can update the blog with the trade , because with the mobile i am not able to do it. Anyway i will try and i will report when i am back the state of my equity. Anyway you know my plan : selling short in the first good reaction.
thaks to the user that have been coming to the montly webinar.
I whish all readers a merry christmas and happy new year.

Exit trade 13

2009-12-17T23:47:00.002+02:00

i forgot to update the blog with the exit of the trade 13. The trade finished with 0 pips profit. It went high as 85 pips in profit but then retrace and i was stopped out.
Being a counter trend trade , ( then a more risky one) leaving 85 tick on the table was not a good performance. I should have inserted a trailing stop also because i was away from the desk and could not follow the trade.
As we said in the webinar of the fundamentals of trading , we should never stop to monitor errors and try to improve the systems .
So my equity line remains a + 100 pips from the start of the blog ( 13 trade) which is not a lot but better than losing.
I am confident that the equity line will perform better in the future as i intend to trade this new bear market in the eur-usd.

TrendRisk analysis EUR_USD 12-17

2009-12-17T16:37:00.002+02:00

yesterday correction of the eur-usd was brief and did not break the 1.4600 level.
As expected 1.4500 gave way and the cross is now at 1.4370 after a low at 1.4328 .
THE EUR_USD TREND HAS CHANGED HAS THE DAILY TIPDOWN AS BEEN CONSISTENTLY BROKEN.
TARGET NOW IS AT 1.4000 with possibility to see a test at weekly tipdown today at 1.3671.
As for my trading i am still waiting for a decent correction to go in short.
When you do retracement trading sometimes this situation happens : you are right on direction but missed to entry the market. ( for 10 pips on my 1.4900 limit order)
I might go in lower than 1.4900, that at the moment seems out of reach. Resistance is now expected at 1.4538-69 1h tipup and stop.

TrendRisk analysis EUR_USD 12-16

2009-12-16T16:53:00.002+02:00

eur-usd has found a bottom at 1.4500 , but on a daily basis yesterday tipdown was broken. As i said this is an important test for the eur-uptrend. I still think there is a possibility for a retracement up to 1h tipup and stop 1.4599-1.4610 and eventually at 4 h tipup at 1.4948 even though the cross look really weak now.
I am still a seller at 1.4900 and eventually i could enter before. after this bounce we should see another test at 1.4500 that if broker will change the trend from up to down with long term target at 1.400o.

TrendRisk analysis EUR_USD 12-15

2009-12-15T10:08:00.002+02:00

Eur-usd has reached the target at 1.4620 and is currently testing the daily tipdown which is at 1.4607 today with stop at 1.4453. My opinion is that we could see a bounce up to 1.4975 ( 4 h tipup) but the probability of a break of daily tipdown are high.
If this happens the whole trend will change from the euro from bullish to bearish,
with first target set at 1.4434 and long term target at 1.4400.
I am still a seller at 1.4900 and i will see today if enter long for this expected bounce.

TrendRisk analysis EUR_USD 12-8

2009-12-08T10:56:00.002+02:00

eur-usd has found a support yesterday at the level of 8H stoptipdown at 1.4750 and from there has bounced up to 1.4890 . The 1 and 4 H time frame have turned bearish and targe is now at 1.4605 daily tipdown is also an important level today at 1.4622.
For today strong support was expected in the 1.4780-90 area has there is a MULTIP convergence of 8h 4h and 1H . place where i enter long .
I expect a bullish correction of the bearish intrady time frame today , but given the strenght of the bearish trend , i reckon it will be contained by the 1h tipup at 1.4922.
For this reason i have :
a limit sell order at 1.4905 with stop 100 pips. target profit 1.4660

Trade 13

2009-12-08T10:44:00.003+02:00

I entered long at 1.4780 early this morning , i already have raise my stop to break even . Target profit at 1.4880.
I am also a seller At 1.4905 With 100 pip stop .
For anaylsis of the trade read daily analysis coming .

TrendRisk analysis EUR_USD 12-6

2009-12-07T10:48:00.003+02:00

After the data on friday the eur got hitted and reached and broke the 4 h tipdown. the fact that the movement was really fast and strong and being friday i decided not to go long , decision that has proven correct. The eur-usd is now currently testing 8h tipdown and stop at 1.4803 -14758.

My opinion is that this bearish correction will extend down to the daily tipdown at 1.4629.

This level is crucial for the eur- uptrend .

For mine trading i am wating for this movement to devolop and decide later which side i will go in.